Modelling transmission dynamics of coronavirus with infected immigrants in Tanzania

  • H Alfred University of Dodoma
  • N M Laurencia National Institute of Transport, Dar es Salaam
  • K Raymond University of Dodoma
Keywords: Coronavirus, infected immigrants, reproduction number

Abstract

This paper proposes and analyses a compartmental deterministic nonlinear model for coronavirus transmission dynamics in Tanzania. The differential equation of stability theory is used to qualitatively evaluate the mathematical model. The basic reproductive number obtained, which represents the epidemic threshold for coronavirus elimination or persistence. Local stability analysis was performed with parameter values calculated based on data availability and accessibility in Tanzania. The findings revealed that infected immigrants have a greater influence on COVID-19 transmission in a population. Furthermore, it demonstrates that an increase in the number of infected immigrants may result in a high infection rate in the community. Besides that, social interactions among members of the community increase the rate of transmission.

Author Biographies

H Alfred, University of Dodoma

Department of Mathematics and Statistics

K Raymond, University of Dodoma

Department of Mathematics and Statistics

Published
2021-06-30
How to Cite
Alfred, H., Laurencia, N., & Raymond, K. (2021). Modelling transmission dynamics of coronavirus with infected immigrants in Tanzania. African Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences, 2(2), 118-126. Retrieved from https://journal.ku.ac.ke/index.php/AJPAS/article/view/215